The hottest investment and export fell, and the GD

Investment and export fell back, and the GDP growth rate in the third quarter will be within 10%

investment and export fell back, and the GDP growth rate in the third quarter will be within 10%

www.6300.29. The market price of imported minerals rose. Net China Construction machinery information

Guide: in September 2010, the Research Report of the chief economist of China finance and economics was released: investment and export fell, and the GDP growth rate in the third quarter will slow down to within 10%. In October 2010, the confidence index of the chief economist of China finance and economics was 52.1, In the state of expansion, in September, the chief economist of first finance monthly

in September 2010, the Research Report of the chief economist of first finance and economics was released: investment and exports fell, and the GDP growth rate in the third quarter will slow down to less than 10%

in October 2010, the "confidence index of the chief economist of first finance and economics" was 52.1, which was in an expanding state

in September, the "monthly survey of the chief economist of first finance and economics" showed that the forecasts of the chief economists from 22 financial institutions at home and abroad, GDP growth in the third quarter will continue to slow down to less than 10%, with a forecast average of 9.38%. But at the same time, the CPI in September will be the same as that in August or continue to set a new high

the survey also shows that the market expects the investment data in September to continue to decline, especially the import and export growth rate will decline significantly, which means that the economic situation is still slowing down. The growth of money and credit in September, which is concerned by the market, will also be lower than that in August

although all economic data showed a downward trend across the board, the "confidence index of chief economist of China business and economics" launched in this survey was still expanding. The index is compiled with reference to PMI (purchasing manager index). 10 chief economists gave a confidence index, with an average of 52.1. Among them, 8 institutions believed that the surface was painted and the parts were flat and smooth, and the center index was above 50

in addition, many chief economists participating in the survey believe that China's macroeconomic policies will continue to remain stable

80% of the confidence index predicts the economic boom

the confidence index of the chief economist of first finance and Economics (hereinafter referred to as "confidence index") is an important indicator of the research of the chief economist of first finance and economics. The index is compiled with reference to PMI, with 50 as the critical value, ranging from 0 to 100, that is, when the prosperity index is higher than 50, it indicates that the economic state tends to rise or improve, and is in a prosperous state; When the prosperity index is lower than 50, it indicates that the economic state tends to decline or deteriorate and is in a depressed state

in the survey in October, 10 chief economists gave the confidence index, with an average of 52.1 and a median of 52.5, of which 8 institutions gave values above 50, and only bocom international and Deutsche Bank gave confidence values below 50 (48 and 47 respectively). This also means that 80% of the chief economists believe that China's economy was in a boom state in October

this boom can also be seen from the manufacturing purchasing managers' index in September released at the beginning of the month. The purchasing managers' index (PMI) of China's manufacturing industry in September released by the China Federation of logistics and purchasing (CFLP) on October 1 was 53.8%, up 2.1 percentage points from the previous month. In addition, according to the report released by HSBC at the end of September, the HSBC China Manufacturing Purchasing Manager index was 52.9 in September, higher than 51.9 in August, the highest in five months

Shen Jianguang, chief economist of Mizuho Securities in Greater China, believes that although the September data may still be optimistic, it does not indicate that economic growth has entered an upward period since then

pan Xiangdong, chief economist of Everbright Securities, pointed out that the economy will continue to decline in the future. It is expected that the proportion of exports to emerging countries will also increase significantly in the fourth quarter, and the growth rate will reach about 8.5%. At the same time, due to the relatively loose monetary environment of the central bank since July, the upward pressure on prices in the future is still large. The operation of the economy will become more complex in the next six months, presenting a typical "stagflation" pattern

of course, some institutions are relatively optimistic. Li Xunlei, chief economist of Guotai Junan, predicts that China's economy will further recover in the fourth quarter

the GDP in the third quarter maintained a "9" success, but the growth rate continued to fall.

since the GDP growth rate in the first quarter of this year reached a new high in recent years, the GDP growth rate began to fall gradually

according to a survey of 22 chief economists, the average GDP growth rate in the third quarter was as low as 9.38%, with a median of 9.4%. JPMorgan Chase is the only one with a forecast growth rate of more than 10%. Wang Qian, the chief economist of the institution in China, gave a forecast growth rate of 10.4%, and the other 21 institutions forecast that the growth rate was below 10%, significantly lagging behind the double-digit growth rate in the first two quarters of this year

in the first half of this year, China's GDP increased by 11.1% year-on-year, of which the GDP growth rate in the second quarter was 10.3%, significantly lower than the 11.9% in the first quarter

although GDP will continue to fall in the third quarter, tengtai, chief economist of Minsheng securities, pointed out that the year-on-year growth rate of GDP will gradually slow down. Quhongbin, chief economist of HSBC in Greater China, explained that a large number of projects under construction and stable consumption will still support GDP growth of about 9% in the fourth quarter of this year and even next year

however, Ma Jun, chief economist of Deutsche Bank in Greater China, said that in terms of investment, new projects led by the government have been insufficient. Although export orders are relatively full, the recent rapid appreciation of the RMB has made some export manufacturers hesitate, so the GDP growth rate is likely to fall to about 8.2% in the fourth quarter

yangqingli, chief economist of BOCOM international in China, pointed out that under the influence of real estate regulation, consumption reduction and power rationing, the economic growth rate in the fourth quarter may still decline moderately. Wang Tao, chief economist of UBS Securities in China, also pointed out that the macro economy will continue to move towards a "soft landing" in the next few months this year - the economic growth rate will decline moderately quarter by quarter and hit the bottom in the fourth quarter

in the context of increasing macroeconomic uncertainty, Wang Qing, chief economist of Morgan Stanley Greater China, stressed that the economic performance in the third quarter will have a decisive impact on the policy direction in the fourth quarter of this year

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