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China's construction machinery industry in the second quarter investment analysis recommendations

China's construction machinery industry in the second quarter investment analysis recommendations

China Construction machinery information

Guide: in the short term, fixed asset investment will continue to grow rapidly in 2004. Because the construction machinery industry is highly related to the growth rate of fixed asset investment, it can be expected that the construction machinery industry will continue to maintain high-speed development in 2004: (1) the rapid growth of the construction real estate industry, In particular, large-scale urbanization construction needs large

in the short term, the investment in fixed assets will still maintain a rapid growth in 2004. Due to the high correlation between the construction machinery industry and the growth rate of investment in fixed assets, it can be expected that the construction machinery industry will continue to maintain a high-speed development in 2004: (1) he worked in spear System Inc., Netstal Machinery Inc., Doug Carson associates and DaTARIUS GmbH, and the rapid growth of the real estate industry, In particular, large-scale urbanization requires a large number of construction machinery products; (2) China's 442 standards for approval will not reduce the scale of highway and railway construction in recent years on the basis of 2002; (3) Many national major investment projects have entered the peak period of construction; (4) Due to the power shortage in 2003, a large number of thermal power and hydropower projects will be launched in the next few years. The start of these projects will also directly promote the development of the construction machinery industry

of course, the excessive growth of fixed asset investment (in 2004, the national fixed asset investment increased by 53% year-on-year) is not conducive to the long-term development of the national economy. In order to ensure the balanced development of the economy, the government has taken various measures to limit the excessive growth of fixed assets, and the growth of fixed asset investment will slow down in the future, which is obviously detrimental to the development of the construction machinery industry

in addition, steel is an important part of the machinery industry, and the elongation of materials can be above 1000%. Since 2003, the price of steel has increased significantly, which has increased the production cost of the construction machinery industry. Many enterprises can not transfer all the increased costs, but can only eliminate some or all of the increased costs by themselves, which is also an adverse factor

it is estimated that the income growth rate of the construction machinery industry in 2004 will be slightly lower than that in 2003, and the growth rate is expected to be about 20%; The profit increased by 30%

recent market performance of industry stocks

since 2004, the average increase in the construction machinery sub industry has been 20.40%, surpassing the 18.54% increase in the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index over the same period. Among them, Zoomlion Heavy Industry, Sany Heavy Industry, which is mainly engaged in concrete construction machinery, and Shandong Lingong with restructuring theme have led the rise; Due to the larger overall increase in 2003 and the lower expectations of investors for its 2004 performance, Guilin Liugong A and Shantui shares, although the annual report performance is good, the recent increase is generally small, far behind the market

investment suggestions for the second quarter

from the perspective of future development, the promulgation of the Tenth Five Year Plan for the development of bulk cement has led to a rapid increase in the market demand for commercial concrete, driving the rapid growth in the demand for pumps and pump trucks. In terms of market concentration, pumps and pump trucks are a typical oligopoly market due to the highest entry barriers and the highest market concentration. From the perspective of future demand growth rate, pump trucks and excavators are driven by industrial policies and construction methods respectively, and there is a great guarantee for the sales volume to maintain rapid growth in the next two years. In terms of individual stocks, we can focus on Zoomlion (000157), which has a monopoly in the industry, and the Third Research Institute, which will establish an innovation system - heavy industry (600031), which integrates basic research - process development - Engineering - industrialization - product utilization