The paper-making scale of the most volcanic Eagle

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Shanying paper: the paper-making scale has been steadily improved. It is optimistic that waste paper will enter the price increase channel. Release date: Source: Northeast Securities

company released the 2019 business data express: in 2019, the domestic paper-making business sales volume was 4.4929 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.29%, and the foreign paper-making sales volume was 264200 tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.07%. The sales volume of packaging business was 1.275 billion square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 4.66%. The transaction value of industrial interconnection (Gmv) was 2.88 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 396.55%. The trade scale of recycled pulp was 3.05 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 23.26%

the scale of papermaking and packaging has been steadily increased, and the business of cloud thermosetting plate printing platform has been rapidly expanded. In 2019, the scale of domestic papermaking and packaging business was steadily increased, and the papermaking sales volume was 4.7571 million tons, exceeding the 2019 papermaking business objectives disclosed in the 2018 annual report. Phase I and phase II projects of central China paper base will be put into operation in 2019. After the central China base is full, the box board capacity will be close to 6million tons, breaking the capacity bottleneck. In 2019, the Gmv of cloud printing business was 2.88 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 396.55%. The rapid growth of cloud printing platform Gmv and the number of active users has driven the continuous improvement of revenue

the gap of waste paper will expand in 2020, and the current low inventory is optimistic that waste paper will enter the price increase channel. The first batch of foreign waste quotas in 2020 has been announced, with a total of 2.7824 million tons, a decrease of 44.74% compared with the first batch in 2019. It is estimated that the total quota of foreign waste in 2020 will be reduced by about 6million tons compared with that in 2019. Waste paper (4) and vanadium for aviation industry will increase steadily, and the gap will further expand. It is believed that due to the impact of de stocking in 2019, the contradiction between supply and demand of waste paper does not appear. At present, the waste paper inventory is at a historically low position, and the price buffer capacity is weak. In 2020, the supply gap will further expand, and it is expected that waste paper will enter the price increase channel. The price increase at the cost side will raise the price of waste paper as a finished product, and the bargaining power of the paper mill is stronger than that of the upstream. Therefore, it is believed that the price increase of waste paper as a finished product exceeds that of raw materials, which is expected to increase the gross profit margin of Shanying paper and enhance its profitability

profit forecast and Valuation: the price of box board paper in the fourth quarter of 2019 was lower than expected. Behind this cut was the strong promotion of the structural reform on the supply side of coal and steel: the implementation of the decisive policy of the central government effectively slowed down the redundant and chronic diseases of the two industries for a long time; The success of coal and steel production capacity ldquo; Slimming down rdquo; It also reawakened the long sleeping market ldquo; Force rdquo; Adjust the profit forecast. It is estimated that the annual EPS will be 0.37, 0.48 and 0.53 respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 10x, 8x and 7x respectively. Maintain a "buy" rating

risk tip: the downstream demand is less than expected, and the price of raw materials rises sharply

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